Congress racing against time to wrap up Telangana before elections

The Congress party, which has hedged its political bets in Andhra Pradesh in favour of Telangana, is racing against time as it tries to wrap up the formation of the country’s 29th state in six months, before the 2014 general election kicks in. The Union cabinet’s approval on Thursday to carve Telangana out of Andhra …

The Union cabinet’s approval on Thursday to carve Telangana out of Andhra Pradesh is only the first step towards statehood formation and the Congress-led government needs to show greater resolve in accelerating the process if it plans to sweep the 119 assembly and 17 parliamentary seats in Telangana in 2014, say analysts.

Andhra Pradesh, which sent the highest number of elected representatives from Congress to Parliament in 2009, will simultaneously elect representatives to both the state and Union governments.

Completing the process of state formation within six months is crucial, said E. Venkatesu, political science professor at University of Hyderabad. “Though it (cabinet approval) is a major phase in creating Telangana, two important phases of passing resolution at state level and Parliament level are still pending,” Venkatesu noted.

“The cabinet move is just an administrative move by the central government. There is still a lot of procedure left to be done,” said P. Ashok Babu, president of Andhra Pradesh Non-Gazetted Officers Association, a state government employees association that has been boycotting work for longer than two months in support of an integrated state.

The Union government will soon commission a group of ministers (GoM) to examine various issues arising out of a division of Andhra Pradesh, the first state formed on linguistic lines in the country.

The 10-member GoM will have ministers of home, finance, law, water resources, power, urban development, road transport and highways, human resources development, and labour. Deputy chairman of the planning commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia will also be part of the body that will oversee the division of the Telugu-speaking state.

The GoM will delve into demarcating boundaries of the proposed states, dividing assets and liabilities, and coming up with an interim revenue-sharing model. It also has to suggest measures to ensure law and order in the two states, and the safety of the Seemandhra population in Hyderabad, the common capital for 10 years.

It will look into contentious issues such as electricity distribution and sharing of water and other natural resources, besides framing legal and administrative rules to ensure smooth functioning of the two state governments from Hyderabad, a process some say could consume time given the deep divisions.

“The GoM will develop certain criteria for division and those aspects will be reflected in the Bill,” saidMadabhushi Sridhar, professor at Nalsar University of Law in Hyderabad.

Home minister Sushilkumar Shinde said the GoM will make its recommendations within six weeks and a state reorganization legislation will be introduced in Parliament in the winter session towards the end of the year.

There is no clarity yet on the GoM’s schedule, the number of days it will spend in the state, and who its consultants on contentious issues such as irrigation, water or government employees will be, said C. Ramachandraiah, professor at the Centre for Economic and Social Studies in Hyderabad. Although there are established conventions on some of the issues, arriving at a consensus will take time, he said.

“A tight time frame exerts pressure on everybody to speed up the process, and the central government will be under pressure to accept the GoM’s report even if it is not properly done due to the election notification for 2014,” Ramachandraiah said. “Again it will be sending a wrong message to Seemandhra people.”

Congress rebel and YSR Congress Party founder Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, who favours an undivided state, said: “How can the group of ministers solve such major issues in a short period of six weeks? Water sharing disputes are acute between states despite tribunals. Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are still fighting it out on sharing of Cauvery waters.”

The 22-page cabinet note prepared by the Union home ministry has already covered every issue and suggested appropriate mechanisms, said K. Nageshwar, journalism professor at Osmania University and an independent member of legislative council. This will ensure the GoM concludes its mandate faster, he said.

After incorporating the GoM’s recommendations, the Union cabinet will forward the Bill to the President, who will refer it to the Andhra Pradesh assembly.

The only hurdle in the formation of Telangana, according to Nageshwar, is if the assembly is dissolved. “According to Article 3 of the Constitution, the process of seeking opinion of the house is mandatory,” he said. “If the assembly is dissolved and president’s rule is imposed in AP (Andhra Pradesh), the Bill cannot go forward.”

Sridhar, however, said that dissolution of the assembly will not matter. “That means AP is not ready to express its opinion. Requirement of law is that it should be sent for the views of the assembly,” he noted.

To be sure, the opinion of the house is not bearing on the Union government.

“Article 3 of Indian constitution specifically says Bill will be sent to Assembly for expression of its views within a specific time frame. After the expiry of the deadline, the Bill will move to the next stage of the constitutional process,” Sridhar said.

Once the Bill clears the Andhra Pradesh assembly, it will be introduced in both the houses of Parliament, where passing it by a simple majority will be a cakewalk given the support of both the Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party to Telangana, although some United Progressive Alliance allies such as Samajwadi Party and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam are opposed to the bifurcation.

Some supporters of a united Andhra Pradesh, like YSR Congress Party’s Jagan Mohan and Congress Vijayawada member of Parliament L. Rajagopal,have threatened to take the legal route.

Some analysts view this as political posturing as the constitution provides for division of a state. “They are proving they do not know tenets of the constitution. This is desperate cynical political drama they are playing,” Nageshwar said.

Others think legal remedy is a viable option.

“The government is on a loose wicket,” said political analyst C. Narasimha Rao. While the government has powers to bifurcate a state, it should follow guidelines rather than acting arbitrarily and imposing its will on people, Rao said. “They can go ahead with bifurcation but it can be challenged in court of law,” he said.

When Samata Party leaders petitioned the Supreme Court against the constitution of the Justice Sri Krishna Committee, set up to examine the Telangana statehood issue in 2010, the apex court dismissed the application on the grounds that the process had not officially begun. The cabinet note may now suffice for a court to decide the merits of the case, Rao said.

A government determined on making Telangana a reality will not be distracted by resignations of its elected representatives since the issue is a crucial dice in catapulting Rahul Gandhi to the prime minister’s chair in 2014, analysts say. “After the CWC (Congress working committee) has taken a decision, Congress has not backtracked,” observed Nageshwar. “It is a political decision.”

Given the political calculus, Congress will ensure the successful passage of the Bill through all phases of the constitutional process before the next general election, when new political equations kick in.

In the eventuality that the Bill is stuck in the process before 2014, it gets lapsed, Sridhar said. He added: “The will matters. The Bill follows the will.”                      Source: LiveMint